Broad Market Analysis - Time to buy Gold and Oil again!
A tame reaction to yesterday's Federal Reserve Board meeting enabled the S&P 500 to post its sixth straight day of gains and once again finish at a new five and a half year high. Just as everyone on Wall Street expected, interest rates were left unchanged. As usual, stocks acted neurotically immediately following the FOMC announcement, but they stabilized and closed in positive territory. The S&P 500 and S&P Midcap 400 indices both gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 perked up, rallying 0.6%, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged with a 0.1% gain. Each of the major indices finished in the upper 20% of their intraday ranges.
Turnover rose across the board yesterday, enabling both the S&P and Nasdaq to register bullish "accumulation days." In the NYSE, total volume increased by 8%, while volume in the Nasdaq was 10% higher than the previous day's level. After registering a bearish "distribution day" in the previous session, it's positive that the Nasdaq was able to follow up with a session of institutional accumulation. Overall volume levels were healthy as well, as volume in the NYSE was at its highest level since October 4. In both exchanges, advancing volume exceeded declining volume by ratio of just under 2 to 1.
Beneath the relatively modest percentage gains of the major indices, several industry sectors surged higher yesterday. As anticipated, gold stocks began following through on spot gold's inverse "head and shoulders" pattern that we analyzed in yesterday's The Wagner Daily. The CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) vaulted 3.5% higher, causing the first half of our long entry in the StreetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD) to trigger. We bought half of our GLD position on the breakout above the 20-day moving average, and will buy the remainder of the shares on a breakout above the October 19 high. Such a rally would confirm the bullish inverse "head and shoulders" chart pattern, as the "neckline" would be broken. More importantly, the five-month downtrend line, as well as the 50 and 200-day moving averages, would also be broken. We really liked the action in gold sector yesterday and feel pretty confident the gold stocks and ETFs will continue higher in the short to intermediate-term.
In addition to GLD, which trades at roughly one-tenth the price of the spot gold commodity, there are a few other related ETFs that you may not be aware of. The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is a competitor of GLD and has a nearly identical chart pattern. The only difference is that GLD trades a lot higher average daily volume. On a slightly different note, don't forget about the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), which trades at about ten times the price of one ounce of the spot silver commodity. Less people pay attention to silver, but the reality is that SLV showed more relative strength than GLD during the recent correction.
The Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) is a relatively new ETF composed of individual gold mining stocks, as opposed to merely being tied to the price of spot gold. Looking at the chart of GDX below, notice how it has a similar inverse "head and shoulders" pattern as GLD, but is already breaking out above its "neckline." It also closed yesterday above its 50-day MA for the first time since September 9:
GDX has less price history than GLD, so its long-term chart pattern is more difficult to define, but we like its relative strength and bullish daily chart pattern. We did not buy GDX in our hedge fund yesterday, but we did take positions in a few individual gold mining stocks, as well as in GLD.
Another impressive performer yesterday was the Oil Service Index ($OSX), which rallied 2.3%. The Oil Service HOLDR (OIH), which we bought when it broke out above its five-month downtrend line, has shown excellent price action by gaining nearly 8 points (just over 6%) in the past two days. Our upside price target is still resistance of the 200-day moving average, which is about 4.5 points above yesterday's closing price. After such a strong run in a short period of time, OIH may consolidate for a few days, but we would be surprised if it gives back much of the recent gain. A brief consolidation would actually be a good thing because it would enable OIH to build a base of support from which to stage its next breakout. Note that OIH is showing much more relative strength than the U.S. Oil Fund (USO), which is loosely correlated to the price of the crude oil commodity. We would continue to avoid USO, but there are a plethora of other energy-related ETFs that are showing similar strength to OIH. For a complete list of all the energy ETFs, check out the "Sector/Industry" page of the free Morpheus ETF Roundup.
With gold and oil seeing such positive institutional money flow over the past few days, one can surmise that commodities in general are picking up strength. After a five-month correction, they may be ready to once again take off. If you want to have an easy way to capture a general move in the commodities market, check out the DB Commodity Index Trust (DBC). As you can see on the long-term weekly chart below, DBC has "filled its gap" from last month and still has more than a point to go until running into resistance of its primary downtrend line:
As for the broad market, what can we say? The major indices are certainly strong and remain glued to the upper range of their uptrend channels without showing any major signs of correction. Obviously, a price retracement will eventually come, but remember that "overbought" markets can remain that way for a long time. If you're not presently long the market, there is clearly a high risk for entering near current prices. However, one way to participate in the bullish action without exposing yourself to major risk is to focus on the industry sectors that trade largely independently of the broad market. Gold and Oil Service, both of which we are long, are two great examples of this. A price correction in the S&P, Dow, or Nasdaq will not necessarily affect these sectors because they are commodity-driven. If you're already long the broad market and are sitting on healthy gains, you might even consider closing some positions into strength and rotating some of that capital into sectors that are less susceptible to the broad-based pullback that will inevitably come.
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In this column, MTG presents you with a FREE, actual trade setup that we are stalking for entry at some point during the week. Note that, unlike the daily guidance that regular Stalk Sheet subscribers receive, this free Stalk of the Week does not take into account overall broad market conditions that can easily affect the trade over the next several days. This week's setup is:
Last week's Stalk of the Week was also CELG long, but it did not trigger. We still like the play a lot and it appears on this morning's MTG Stalk Sheet. As such, we are listing the same setup again this week, but with adjusted trigger, stop, and target prices.
Click to receive your free 1-month trial to The MTG Stalk Sheet so that you can receive an average of one to three trade ideas such as this one on a daily basis (limit one free trial per household). Subscribers are always provided with detailed entry, stop, and target prices for each trade, and intraday e-mail alerts are sent as needed.
Below is the weekly commentary that accompanied this week's updated ETF Trend Tracker that was e-mailed to subscribers. The Morpheus ETF Trend Tracker, a perfect supplement to the ETF Roundup guide, is a comprehensive table of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) designed for informed investors and longer-term traders who prefer to hold their ETF positions for a few weeks to several months at a time. Based exclusively on a weekly analysis of trendlines on the daily and weekly charts, the ETF Trend Tracker provides subscribers with a thorough snapshot of the primary trend direction of ETFs in every category from broad-based to industry sector to international. This information is e-mailed to subscribers weekly, in a user-friendly format that groups ETFs based on the direction of their primary trends.
Commentary:The Semiconductor (SMH) and Broadband (BDH) HOLDRS both fell apart last week and reversed to the "descending trend" list. If you bought SMH when it initially triggered to the "ascending trend" list at a price of 32.16 on August 16 and followed our "Reversal Stop" of 33.80, you still netted a gain of 5% on the long side before it reversed to the "descending trend" list. BDH also netted a similar 6.5% gain based on its August 15 long entry of 15.80 and last week's "Reversal Stop" of 16.84 before falling off the "ascending trend" list.
On the downside, Energy (XLE), Oil Services (OIH), and Oil (USO) remain weak on their "descending trends." It should be noted, however, that OIH is now a long entry in The Wagner Daily, which focuses on shorter-term movements than the ETF Trend Tracker. It is not uncommon for The Wagner Daily to occasionally trade in the opposite direction of the primary trend listed in the ETF Trend Tracker because the latter is focused on longer-term, primary trends. It does not seek to participate in momentum-based moves, as ETF plays in The Wagner Daily sometimes do.
On the upside, Real Estate (IYR), Telecom (IYZ), Pharmaceuticals (PPH), and Nanotechnology (PXN) are all showing relative strength and moving steadily higher. As you can see on this week's Trend Tracker, PPH is now showing a 13% marked to market gain since entering the "ascending trend" list on June 30. IYZ is showing a 19% gain. Last week, many more ETFs posted new highs as well. We noticed, however, that only a few changes in stop placement were required in this week's updated Trend Tracker. Most of the tightened stops were in the broad-based ETFs, in order to protect gains in that arena.
The fixed-income (bond) and international ETFs were relatively quiet in trend activity last week. All of the international sector ETFs are in the "ascending trend" list, with many continuing to move into new high territory.
Alerts for potential trend reversals were activated for all of the fixed-income (bond) ETFs.
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