The MTG Stalk Sheet
February 8, 2008
The MTG Stalk Sheet presents you with the best individual
stocks that Morpheus Trading Group is stalking for potential trade entry
each day, all in a concise and easy to understand format. Please be sure to read the MTG
Stalk Sheet User Guide in order to understand the terminology below and to
receive the maximum benefit from your subscription. Enjoy!
"FULL-SERVE" STALK LIST
AKS - AK Steel
Industry - Iron & Steel
Side - Long
Shares - 150
Stalking since - February 8
Timeframe - 3 - 20 days
Trigger - 45.12
Target - watch price and volume action
Stop - 42.69
Notes -
- AKS is forming a bullish double bottom pattern.
- Double bottom patterns have the shape of a W, with the second low
undercutting the first low (circled in yellow above). This undercut is
the final shakeout of weak holders, making it possible for the stock to reverse off the lows (email us if you have further questions regarding this pattern).
- The volume was strong as the stock ripped through the 200-50-20 MA's.
- The recent surge tested the mid-point of the formation (which was 48.99 on Dec. 10).
- It has pulled back in orderly fashion to support of the 20 & 50- day MA's.
- The long entry is over yesterday's high plus some wiggle room.
- The stop is placed beneath yesterday's low minus some wiggle room.
- Trade expectations - Look for AKS to close above 45
and test the prior swing high near 50. If the price and volume action remains healthy, we will hold our position in hopes of a breakout above the mid-point (above 50). This would confirm the double bottom pattern and thrust AKS to new highs.
UTHR - United Therapeutics
Industry - Biotechnology & Drugs
Side - Long
Shares - 100
Stalking since - February 6
Timeframe - 2 - 5 days
Trigger - 88.05
Target - 93.75
Stop - 84.25
Notes -
- UTHR broke the downtrend line of a month long correction on 2/4.
- Has basically traded in a tight horizontal range over the past eight sessions.
- The entry is over yesterday's high plus some wiggle room.
- Trade expectations - Look for UTHR to confirm the break of the downtrend line by closing above 88. We expect a quick pop in price with a target just below the 50% retracement level of the move down. The mimimum target is the 38% retrace level.
"SELF-SERVE" STALK LIST - UPDATED EVERY MONDAY (Click here to view the "Self-Serve" Stalk List
section of the user guide.)
LONG WATCHLIST AND TRIGGER PRICES - (changes to trigger prices are highlighted in red)
Pullback entries -
- TEVA - 47.01
- ALXN - 69.32
- AEM - 61.86
- CMO - 16.20
- ALNY - 32.15
- UTHR - re-entry 88.05 (false triggered at 87.60 on 2/5)
- MER - 59.35 (triggered 2/4)
- FXI - 151.51 (gapped above entry)
- KSS - 45.51 (rolled over after gapping above the entry)
- HME - 49.55 (triggered 2/4 on weak action)
- RTN - 65.41 (triggerd 2/7)
- MCD - 54.63 (triggered 2/7)
Breakout entries -
- CNX - 77.51
- APOL - 81.80
- IMCL - 44.51
- DBC - 32.76
- NLY - 20.33 (triggered 2/5)
SHORT WATCHLIST AND TRIGGER
PRICES
- RS - 49.15 (gapped below trigger on 2/5)
- GOL - 18.99 (triggered 2/5)
- DRIV - 30.27 (triggered 2/5)
- CIEN - 25.48 (triggered 2/5)
- PCLN - 101.99 (triggered 2/5)
Note - Be sure to check for earnings dates before entering setups from the self-serve list over the next few weeks.
Daily Stalk Summary
Below is an overview of all
"full-serve" open positions, as well as a performance report on all "full-serve"
positions that were closed only since the previous day's newsletter. Net
P/L figures are based on the $100,000 Stalk
Sheet model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous
report are listed in red text below:
Open positions (coming into today):
Closed positions (since last
report):
AAPL short (100 shares from Fed. 6) -
sold short 129.44, cover 120.15,
points = + 9.29, net P/L = + $927
DE short (125 shares from Fed. 5) -
sold short 86.41, cover 82.02,
points = + 4.39, net P/L = + $546
AEM long (200 shares from Fed. 7) -
bought 60.13, sold 60.43,
points = + 0.30, net P/L = + $56
CCJ long (200 shares from Fed. 6) -
bought 32.64, sold 31.68,
points = (0.96), net P/L = ($196)
Current equity exposure ($200,000 max. buying power):
Notes:
- Per intraday e-mail alert:
- Covered AAPL on the open to lock in a quick $900 gain.
- Covered DE on the open to lock in a mid-sized gain and guard against a reversal.
- Raised the stop in CCJ, which triggered around 11:20am for a small loss.
- Bought and sold AEM for a scratch.
- If/when UTHR triggers we will adjust stop price to go beneath the most recent swing low on the hourly chart.
Market Conditions / Gameplan:
After staging an impressive mid-day rally, averages sold off sharply around 2pm and erased much of the days gains. While it looks as if the market is trying to bottom out at these levels, we would like to see some confirmation, such as a full day of buying with strong price action into the close. Until then, we will keep our exposure to the long side at a minimum.
Market Leaders:
Monitoring the price action of leading stocks is the best way to gauge the health of the market. This list of leaders is updated every Monday.
Leaders - ABX, AEM, ACI, ADM, APOL, BMRN, BVN, CNX, DBC, FDG, FCL, FXE, GOLD, GG, GLD, ILMN, PPDI, SID, SLV, WLT
Leaders at/near the 50-day MA (a key institutional support level) - BYI, DV, IBN, PBR, PPDI, TRA
Leading stocks breaking the 50-day MA (last week) - none
Notes on leaders:
Coal stocks are showing great relative strength
Open Position Detail:
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and Head
Trader
DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading
securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and
should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell
any securities. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and
employees may or may not buy, sell or have a position in the securities
discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet and may profit in the event the shares of the
companies discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet rise or fall in value. Morpheus
Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker,
broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or
underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve
risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from
descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any
statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner
before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The MTG Stalk
Sheet. The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed
herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the
preparation and distribution of any materials in The MTG Stalk Sheet. Past
performance never guarantees future results.
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Morpheus Trading, LLC
All Rights Reserved
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