The MTG Stalk Sheet
February 21, 2008

The MTG Stalk Sheet presents you with the best individual stocks that Morpheus Trading Group is stalking for potential trade entry each day, all in a concise and easy to understand format. Please be sure to read the MTG Stalk Sheet User Guide in order to understand the terminology below and to receive the maximum benefit from your subscription. Enjoy!


"FULL-SERVE" STALK LIST


ADM - Archer Daniels Midland

  • Industry - Farm Products
  • Side - Long
  • Shares - 300
  • Stalking since - February 21
  • Timeframe - 5 - 20 days
  • Trigger - 46.05
  • Target - new highs (will trail stop)
  • Stop - 44.74
  • Notes -
      • ADM has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern over the past two months.
      • Has shown great relative strength versus the broad market during the correction and is trading less than 5% off the 52-week high.
      • The volume has dropped off significantly during the consolidation which is a bullish sign.
      • We are looking for a move above the high of 2/4 for a safe buy entry.
      • The stop is placed a little over one point away. As with the majority of our breakout setups, we go with tight stops usually 1 to 3 points below our entry depending on the price and volatility.
      • Trade expectations - Look fo ADM to breakout to new highs over the next week or two on increased volume.
    "SELF-SERVE" STALK LIST - UPDATED EVERY MONDAY (Click here to view the "Self-Serve" Stalk List section of the user guide.)

      LONG WATCHLIST AND TRIGGER PRICES - (changes to trigger prices are highlighted in red)

      Pullback entries - (2-5 day pullbacks)

    • PRGO - 35.40 (triggered 2/19)
    • XTO - 55.70 (triggered 2/19)
    • EOG - 99.11 (gapped above trigger 2/19)
    • ELN - 25.62 (triggered 2/19)
    • FMX - 41.16 (gapped above trigger 2/19)

      Breakout entries (trigger over a range of tight action)

      New setups

    • AG - 65.60 & 67.01
    • CF - 128.51
    • DECK - 125.01
    • SOHU - 49.74
      ------------------------------------
    • MEE - 42.60
    • EOG - 101.11
    • SGR - 62.20 (breakout of downtrend line)
    • BGC - 66.15 (breakout of downtrend line)
    • OI - 56.65
    • AKS - 48.88 (triggered 2/19)
    • ISRG - 316.00 (triggered 2/19)
    • MTL - 114.20 (triggered 2/19)
    • DVN - 95.15 (triggered 2/19)
    • CF - 120.16 (gapped above trigger 2/19)
    • HES - 93.61 (triggered 2/19)
    • PBR - 118.75 (triggered 2/19)
    • ANR - 38.51 (triggered 2/20)

      SHORT WATCHLIST AND TRIGGER PRICES

    • TBL - 14.64
    • DBD - 24.34
    • FNM - 28.94 (triggered 2/19)
    • SNDK - 24.97 (triggered 2/20)
    • PCS - 15.30 (triggered 2/20)
    • LEAP - 36.35 (triggered 2/20)

      Note - Be sure to check for earnings dates before entering setups from the self-serve list over the next few weeks.


    Daily Stalk Summary

    Below is an overview of all "full-serve" open positions, as well as a performance report on all "full-serve" positions that were closed only since the previous day's newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $100,000 Stalk Sheet model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below:

      Open positions (coming into today):

        CSX long (200 shares from Feb. 20) -
        bought 50.85, stop 48.89, target new highs, unrealized points = (0.26), unrealized P/L = ($52)

      Closed positions (since last report):

        WB short (150 shares from Feb. 14) -
        sold short 33.35, cover 34.26, points = (0.61), net P/L = ($142)

      Current equity exposure ($200,000 max. buying power):

        $10,118


      Notes:

      • Per intraday e-mail alert, we trailed a tight stop in WB which triggered for a small loss.
      • Per-intraday email alert, we bought the breakout in CSX.
      • We have been playing it close to the vest as far as longs are concerned over the past two months due to the ugly action in the market. However, we are seeing ecouraging price action from breakouts over the past two weeks, which leads us to believe that the market has put in a short term bottom. We would like to see further confirmation of this with continued high volume breakouts in stocks trading at/near their 52-week highs.


      Market Conditions / Gameplan:

      Strong afternoon reversal in the market yesterday. Over the past week we have seen indecisive action from broad market indices, however, we are encouraged by the number of breakouts that are beginning to work.


      Market Leaders:

        Monitoring the price action of leading stocks is the best way to gauge the health of the market. This list of leaders is updated every Monday.

          D Leaders - ACI, AEM, AUXL, BVN, BMRN, CF, CLF, CNX, DBA, DBC, DVN, EOG, FCL, FSLR, ISRG, MA, MEE, MOS, MTL, OI, PBR, POT, PRGO, RRRC, SID, SLV, SPW, WLT,

          Leaders at/near the 50-day MA (a key institutional support level) - AG, AGU, ATW, FCL, FCX, FSLR, FWLT, HES, ISRG, MICC, NBL, OXY, PCU, RIO, VIP

          Leading stocks breaking the 50-day MA (last week) - none

        Notes on leaders:

      • The number of bullish chart patterns have increased over the past two weeks.

      Open Position Detail:

      • CSX - Breakout from cup and handle formation. No change in stop.


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      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and Head Trader

      DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have a position in the securities discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet rise or fall in value. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet. The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The MTG Stalk Sheet. Past performance never guarantees future results.

      Copyright © 2002 - 2007 - Morpheus Trading, LLC
      All Rights Reserved



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