The MTG Stalk Sheet
April 15, 2008

The MTG Stalk Sheet presents you with the best individual stocks that Morpheus Trading Group is stalking for potential trade entry each day, all in a concise and easy to understand format. Please be sure to read the MTG Stalk Sheet User Guide in order to understand the terminology below and to receive the maximum benefit from your subscription. Enjoy!


"FULL-SERVE" STALK LIST




RIO - Vale

  • Industry - Metal Mining
  • Side - Long
  • Shares - 250
  • Stalking since - April 15
  • Timeframe - 3 - 10 days
  • Trigger - 35.81
  • Target - new highs (will trail stop)
  • Stop - 33.94
  • Notes -
      • RIO surged off the 200-day MA to test the highs of February.
      • Has pulled back in a tight, orderly range.
      • Volume on the pullback has been very light.
      • Finding support from the 20-day EMA.
      • Has retraced a bullish 38% of the move off the lows.
      • Our entry is over the 4/14 high, as we expect at the very least a test of the prior highs.
      • The stop is placed beneath the low of the 4/14, minus some wigggle room.
      • Trade expectations - RIO has great fundamentals and relative strength, and belongs to one the the best performing industry groups (Metal Ores/ is ranked #10 on the IBD industry group rankings). We have support from the moving average and the 38% fibo number. RIO does report earnings on 5/1, so unless we have a very big profit buffer and reduced share size, we want to be out before then. Look for the uptrend to resume with a close above 36.00.
    "SELF-SERVE" STALK LIST - UPDATED EVERY MONDAY (Click here to view the "Self-Serve" Stalk List section of the user guide.)

      LONG WATCHLIST AND TRIGGER PRICES - (changes to trigger prices are highlighted in red)

      Pullback entries - (2-5 day pullback in a strong uptrend)

      New setups

    • RIO - 35.81
    • MT - 84.15
    • DE - 86.55
      ---------------------------
    • PQ - 18.60 (triggered 4/14)
    • BZP - 18.51 (triggered 4/14)
    • KSU - buy pullback to lows of range and 20-day MA (38.50 - 39.00 area)
    • DE - buy pullback to 50-day MA (84.50 - 85.00 area)

      Breakout entries (from cup and handles, bull flags, flat bases,and downtrends)

      New setups

    • EOG - 130.01
    • XOM - 90.26
    • FSLR - 278.00 & 292.00
      ---------------------------
    • SID - 41.38
    • UPL - 82.60 (triggered 4/14)
    • PVA - 49.13 (triggered 4/14)
    • JRCC - 20.70 (triggered 4/14)

    • Note: Check earnings before entering new positions over the next few weeks.

      SHORT WATCHLIST AND TRIGGER PRICES (stocks consolidating at/near their 52-week lows in a tight range)

    • DLX - 19.09
    • MVSN - 13.34
    • DF - 20.08
    • XL - 29.74 (triggered 4/14)
    • CMA - 34.16 (triggered 4/14)
    • BPFH - 9.99 (triggered 4/14)


    Daily Stalk Summary

    Below is an overview of all "full-serve" open positions, as well as a performance report on all "full-serve" positions that were closed only since the previous day's newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $100,000 Stalk Sheet model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below:

      Open positions (coming into today):

        RRC long (250 shares from April 2) - bought 65.16, stop 62.94, target new highs (will trail stop), unrealized points = + 1.07, unrealized P/L = + $265

        V long (100 shares from April 7) - bought 65.91(avg), stop 64.49, target (new highs), unrealized points = + 0.20, unrealized P/L = + $38

        FSLR long (75 shares from April 14) - bought 275.23, stop 270.39, target (new highs), unrealized points = + 0.20, unrealized P/L = + $38

      Closed positions (since last report):

        (none)

      Current equity exposure ($200,000 max. buying power):

        $29,799


      Notes:

      • Per intraday email alert, we bought FSLR over a right range of consolidation.
      • Per intraday email alert, we trailed a tight stop in V which just missed triggering into the close. If our stop is hit within the first 5-minutes of trading we will use the 5-minute low minus 11 cents as our new stop. We will honor the original stop if it triggers after 9:35 am.
      • There are plenty of bullish patterns to be found....however, many of them report earnings this week or next (CNX, ACI, FCX, and STLD are a few). Our policy as short term traders is to stay away from stocks that report earnings within the next week or two, as managing the price action can be very tricky (just look at ISRG's wild action heading into this weeks earnings report).


    Market Conditions / Gameplan:

  • While stock market indices look a little shaky leading stocks continue to exhibit solid price and volume action. We will be looking for stocks that gap up to new highs on big volume from strong earnings reports.



    Market Leaders:

      Monitoring the price action of leading stocks is the best way to gauge the health of the market (when the market is trending higher). This list of leaders is updated every Monday.

        Leaders - AEM AKS ANR APA BZP C CF CLF CMP COG CSX FDG GGB HAL JRCC MOS POT PXP SID SWN UPL X XEC

        Strong stocks at/near the 50-day MA (a key institutional support level) - BLK, DNA, PCLN, ITRI, DE, BZP, ODFL, AG, HES, ABV

        Leading stocks breaking the 50-day (last week) - BCR, STT


      Notes on leaders:

    • We are concentrating on selecting stocks that are in the top 10 to 20 performing insutry groups. This is where all the action is and that's where we want to be.

    Open Position Detail:

    • RRC - Has pulled back in a tight range with no wild action. No change in stop.
    • V - We are trailing a tight stop beneath the hourly uptrend line. We can always re-enter when the price and volume action begins to impress. No change in stop.
    • FSLR - Tight ranged consolidaion. No change in stop.


    Click here for a free trial to Morpheus Trading Group's other newsletter services.

    Please check out the MTG Stalk Sheet Subscriber Guide to learn how to get the most from your subscription.

    • Edited by Deron Wagner,
    MTG Founder and Head Trader

    DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have a position in the securities discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet rise or fall in value. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet. The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The MTG Stalk Sheet. Past performance never guarantees future results.

    Copyright © 2002 - 2007 - Morpheus Trading, LLC
    All Rights Reserved