The MTG Stalk Sheet
May 14, 2008

The MTG Stalk Sheet presents you with the best individual stocks that Morpheus Trading Group is stalking for potential trade entry each day, all in a concise and easy to understand format. Please be sure to read the MTG Stalk Sheet User Guide in order to understand the terminology below and to receive the maximum benefit from your subscription. Enjoy!


"FULL-SERVE" STALK LIST







VIP - Vimpel

  • Industry - Communications
  • Side - Long
  • Shares - 225
  • Stalking since - May 14
  • Timeframe - 5 - 20 days
  • Trigger - 33.28
  • Target - 38
  • Stop - 31.24
  • Notes -
      • VIP broke the weekly downtrend line on heavy volume last week, closing back above the 50-day and 200- day MA's (10 & 40 MA's on weekly).
      • Is still reporting great earnings and revenue growth.
      • Has pulled back on quiet volume...with a nice little shakeout bar on 5/12 beneath the two day low.
      • Our long entry is over the hourly downtrend line.
      • We are placing a fairly loose stop beneath the 20-day EMA.
      • Trade expectations - We are looking for another leg up in VIP with a target at the prior swing highs of February around 38.00.



    FEED - AgFeed Industries

  • Industry - Food Processing
  • Side - Long
  • Shares - 250
  • Stalking since - May 14
  • Timeframe - 5 - 20 days
  • Trigger - 19.31
  • Target - new highs
  • Stop - 17.49
  • Notes -
      • Recent Chinese IPO that broke out to new highs in mid-April on big volume.
      • Has pulled back to the 20-day EMA in orderly fashion, in a tight range.
      • Volume tapered off on the retreat and picked up at support.
      • Yesterday's reversal bar action washed out the weak longs.
      • We are looking to buy the breakout above the tight hourly range over 19.00.
      • The stop is placed beneath the 20-day EMA, minus some wiggle room.
      • Trade expectations - We look for FEED to breakout to new highs over the next few weeks, so we will try to hold our position as long as the price and volume action agrees.
    "SELF-SERVE" STALK LIST - UPDATED EVERY MONDAY (Click here to view the "Self-Serve" Stalk List section of the user guide.)

      LONG WATCHLIST AND TRIGGER PRICES - (changes to trigger prices are highlighted in red)

      Pullback entries - (2-5 day pullback in a strong uptrend or pullbacks to the 20 & 50-day MA's)

      New setups

    • CHL - 85.51
    • LFC - 63.76
    • MA - 293.11
      ------------------------
    • FEED - 19.31
    • GFA - 42.21 (triggered 5/12)
    • BIDU - 348.00 (triggered 5/12)
    • GOOG - 576.00 (triggered 5/12)
    • SPWR - 85.01 (triggered 5/12)
    • GMCR - 38.55 (triggered 5/12)
    • SOL - pullback to 18.50-19 (triggered 5/12)
    • ABFS - 38.86 (triggered 5/12)
    • ESRX - 71.76 (triggered 5/13)
    • CTRP - 63.26 (triggered 5/13)
    • APA - 134.76 (triggered 5/13)

      Breakout entries (from cup and handles, bull flags, flat bases,and downtrends)

      New setups

    • NOV - 76.85
    • CCJ - 40.80
    • AKS - 71.01
    • HESS - 119.11
      ------------------------
    • IPI - 52.16 IPO (50.65 early entry)
    • FSLR - 288.20
    • JASO - 27.11
    • CNX - 92.26 (triggered 5/13)
    • TCK - 48.51 (triggered 5/13)
    • OXY - 88.80 (triggered 5/13)
    • ILMN - 81.30 (early entry triggerd on 5/12 at 79.11)
    • EXM - 46.32 (triggered 5/12)
    • POT - 201.01 (triggered 5/12)
    • AGU - 87.51 (triggered on 5/12)
    • AME - 50.80 (triggered 5/13)
    • ADBE - 40.70 (triggered 5/13)

      SHORT WATCHLIST AND TRIGGER PRICES

    • LFG - 28.58


    Daily Stalk Summary

    Below is an overview of all "full-serve" open positions, as well as a performance report on all "full-serve" positions that were closed only since the previous day's newsletter. Net P/L figures are based on the $100,000 Stalk Sheet model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in red text below:

      Open positions (coming into today):

        EXM long (200 shares from May 12) -
        bought 46.41, stop 47.94, target 53.80, unrealized points = + 5.69, unrealized P/L = + $1,136

        SOL long (200 shares from May 12) -
        bought 19.21, stop 16.85, target new highs, unrealized points = + 2.46, unrealized P/L = + $490

        UTHR long (175 shares from May 2) -
        bought 90.86(avg), stop 75 at 89.85 & 100 at 87.85, target 99.50, unrealized points = + 2.05, unrealized P/L = + $357

        V long (100 shares from May 12) -
        bought 79.01, stop 75.85, target new highs, unrealized points = + 3.37, unrealized P/L = + $336

        BMRN long (225 shares from May 9) -
        bought 38.23, stop 36.65, target new highs, unrealized points = + 1.14, unrealized P/L = + $254

        AKS long (200 shares from May 13) -
        bought 70.06, stop 67.49, target new highs, unrealized points = + 0.49, unrealized P/L = + $96

        ISRG short (40 shares from May 2) -
        sold short 289.60, stop 299.30, target 252.00, unrealized points = (0.79), unrealized P/L = ($32)

      Closed positions (since last report):

        POT long (75 shares from May 12) -
        bought 201.05, sold 199.74, points = (1.31), net P/L = ($100)

      Current equity exposure ($200,000 max. buying power):

        $73,835


      Notes:

      • Per intraday email alert, we sold POT due to the failure to hold above 200. We didn't want to stick around in a low volume false breakout above 200, so we ditched with a small loss. This is the way we like to operate. Take small losses when the price and volume action doesn't agree. We can always re-eneter if the action improves. POT and AGU could breakout this week or next, so we will continue to monitor.
      • Per interday email alert, we bought the breakout from a tight intraday consolidation in AKS. We expect to see momentum carry it to new highs from this bull flag setup.
      • We are holding SOL through earnings (it reports this morning) with a $500 profit buffer. Solar stocks were strong yesteday due to CSIQ crushing Wall Street estimates. We look for continued strength from solar, as these stock are reporting impressive earnings and revenue growth. As long as SOL holds above 19 the breakout is in good shape.


      Market Conditions / Gameplan:

    • Two things we specifically like about this market right now :

        1.) Broad market indices fought off distribution from the morning session and battled back in the afternoon. The Nasdaq is showing much more strength than the S&P and is in position to breakout from the current range and possibly close above the 200-day MA.
        2.) Leadership is beginning to broaden - Solar (SOL, CSIQ, FLSR), Chinese (SOHU, CTRP, NTES, SINA, and CHL)- Nasdaq stocks are waking up.


      Market Leaders:

        Monitoring the price action of leading stocks is the best way to gauge the health of the market (when the market is trending higher). Keep a watchlist of these symbols up at all times and review the price action every night after the close. This list of leaders is updated every Monday.

          Leaders - AKS ANR APA BUCY CF CLF CLR CMP CSX DVN EOG FDG FSLR HAL HP JRCC LNN MOS MTL POT RRC SID SQM STLD SWN USO UNP X XEC

          Leading/strong stocks at/near the 50-day MA (a key institutional support level) - CMP, STLD, PCU, MDR, SYT, CELG

          Leading/strong stocks breaking the 50-day (last week) - PRGO, ITRI


        Notes on leaders:

      • Market leadership continues to impress. Coal, steel, nat gas & oil exploration, oil service, railroads, and chinese ADR's are all looking good.

      Open Position Detail:

      • UTHR - Should breakout above the current range within the next few days. No change in stop.
      • ISRG - A break of the 5/9 low should trigger a decent selloff. No change in stop.
      • BMRN - Strong breakout on a pick up in volume/ consolidating in bullish fashion. No change in stop.
      • V - Holding up well. No change in stop.
      • SOL - Powerful breakout action into earnings. No change in stop.
      • EXM - Big volume breakout bar with great price action. We moved our target slightly lower to avoid all the congestion around 55. We are trailing a stop one point beneath yesterday's low (basically its a money stop to lock in a $300 gain in case the action reverses).
      • AKS - Just triggered. We would like to see it hold above 69-70. No change in stop.


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      Please check out the MTG Stalk Sheet Subscriber Guide to learn how to get the most from your subscription.

      Edited by Deron Wagner,
      MTG Founder and Head Trader

      DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may or may not buy, sell or have a position in the securities discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet and may profit in the event the shares of the companies discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet rise or fall in value. Morpheus Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker, broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet. The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the preparation and distribution of any materials in The MTG Stalk Sheet. Past performance never guarantees future results.

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