The MTG Stalk Sheet
May 16, 2008
The MTG Stalk Sheet presents you with the best individual
stocks that Morpheus Trading Group is stalking for potential trade entry
each day, all in a concise and easy to understand format. Please be sure to read the MTG
Stalk Sheet User Guide in order to understand the terminology below and to
receive the maximum benefit from your subscription. Enjoy!
"FULL-SERVE" STALK LIST
There are no new setups in the pre-market today. If any new trades are made, we will promptly notify via Intraday Trade Alert.
"SELF-SERVE" STALK LIST - UPDATED EVERY MONDAY (Click here to view the "Self-Serve" Stalk List
section of the user guide.)
LONG WATCHLIST AND TRIGGER PRICES - (changes to trigger prices are highlighted in red)
Pullback entries - (2-5 day pullback in a strong uptrend or pullbacks to the 20 & 50-day MA's)
- FEED - 19.31
- CHL - 85.51 (triggered 5/14)
- LFC - 63.76 (triggered 5/14)
- MA - 293.11 (triggered 5/14)
- GFA - 42.21 (triggered 5/14)
- BIDU - 348.00 (triggered 5/12)
- GOOG - 576.00 (triggered 5/12)
- SPWR - 85.01 (triggered 5/12)
- GMCR - 38.55 (triggered 5/12)
- SOL - pullback to 18.50-19 (triggered 5/12)
- ABFS - 38.86 (triggered 5/12)
- ESRX - 71.76 (triggered 5/13)
- CTRP - 63.26 (triggered 5/13)
- APA - 134.76 (triggered 5/13)
Breakout entries (from cup and handles, bull flags, flat bases,and downtrends)
- NOV - 76.85
- HES - 119.11 (triggered 5/15)
- IPI - 52.16 IPO (50.65 early entry)
- JASO - 27.11
- CNX - 92.26 (triggered 5/13)
- TCK - 48.51 (triggered 5/13)
- OXY - 88.80 (triggered 5/13)
- ILMN - 81.30 (early entry triggerd on 5/12 at 79.11)
- EXM - 46.32 (triggered 5/12)
- POT - 201.01 (triggered 5/12)
- AGU - 87.51 (triggered on 5/12)
- AME - 50.80 (triggered 5/13)
- ADBE - 40.70 (triggered 5/13)
- AKS - 71.01 (triggered 5/14 on false breakout)
SHORT WATCHLIST AND TRIGGER
PRICES
- LFG - 28.58
Daily Stalk Summary
Below is an overview of all
"full-serve" open positions, as well as a performance report on all "full-serve"
positions that were closed only since the previous day's newsletter. Net
P/L figures are based on the $100,000 Stalk
Sheet model account size. Changes to open positions since the previous
report are listed in red text below:
Open positions (coming into today):
SOL long (200 shares from May 12) -
bought 19.21, stop 21.44,
target new highs, unrealized points = + 7.00, unrealized P/L = + $1,400
V long (100 shares from May 12) -
bought 79.01, stop 77.85,
target new highs, unrealized points = + 3.24, unrealized P/L = + $324
BMRN long (225 shares from May 9) -
bought 38.23, stop 38.23,
target new highs, unrealized points = + 0.73, unrealized P/L = + $164
DE short (125 shares from May 15) -
sold short 83.12, stop 86.38, no target (will trail stop), unrealized points = (0.49), unrealized P/L = ($61)
ISRG short (40 shares from May 2) -
sold short 289.60, stop 296.20,
target 252.00, unrealized points = (3.38), unrealized P/L = ($135)
Closed positions (since last report):
UTHR long (175 shares from May 2) -
bought 90.86(avg), sold 91.60, points = + 0.74, net P/L = + $127
POT long (50 shares from May 14) -
bought 200.95, sold 201.27, points = + 0.32, net P/L = + $15
AKS long (200 shares from May 13) -
bought 70.06, sold 69.10, points = (0.96), net P/L = ($194)
Current equity exposure ($200,000 max. buying power):
Notes:
- Per Intraday Trade Alert, we sold AKS into strength on the morning bounce. The previous day's action was rather bearish, so we decided to close the position into strength to limit the loss, rather than waiting for the stop to get hit (which AKS would have done at mid-day).
- UTHR opened below our stop, so we used the MTG Opening Gap Rules to manage the position. Its adjusted stop below the 20-minute low was subsequently hit, enabling us to close the position with a small gain.
- In order to minimize risk, we also made a judgment call to sell POT for a scratch, when it fell to near our entry price at mid-day.
- Per Intraday Trade Alert, we sold short DE into yesterday morning's bounce. The previous day's high volume breakdown should lead to further losses in the coming days.
Market Conditions / Gameplan:
- Strength in the Semiconductor Index ($SOX) helped the Nasdaq recover all of the previous afternoon's intraday losses. Although the Nasdaq Composite closed above its 200-day MA, recent broad market action has been rather indecisive. As such, we are being a bit more conservative with regard to the number of new position entries. Nevertheless, our existing positions continue to act well, so we'll focus on managing them for maximum profitability.
Market Leaders:
Monitoring the price action of leading stocks is the best way to gauge the health of the market (when the market is trending higher). Keep a watchlist of these symbols up at all times and review the price action every night after the close. This list of leaders is updated every Monday.
Leaders - AKS
ANR
APA
BUCY
CF
CLF
CLR
CMP
CSX
DVN
EOG
FDG
FSLR
HAL
HP
JRCC
LNN
MOS
MTL
POT
RRC
SID
SQM
STLD
SWN
USO
UNP
X
XEC
Leading/strong stocks at/near the 50-day MA (a key institutional support level) - CMP, STLD, PCU, MDR, SYT, CELG
Leading/strong stocks breaking the 50-day (last week) - PRGO, ITRI
Notes on leaders:
Monitor leading stocks for potential heavy volume distribution (which could be defined as closing 4-5% down on volume that is at least 200% greater than the 50-day moving average of volume). Sudden distribution in leading stocks is often one of the first indicators of a market top.
Open Position Detail:
- ISRG - Snapped back substantially yesterday, so be on guard for potential trigger of stop today.
- BMRN - The breakout has been steady, but not impressive. Now using breakeven stop.
- V - Holding up well. Current stop minimizes risk significantly.
- SOL - Powerful breakout action and showing major relative strength. We want to give this stock some "wiggle room" to move higher, but have trailed our stop to lock in a gain of at least $400.
- DE - We like the low-risk short entry into yesterday morning's bounce. With an abundance of overhead supply left behind in the wake of the previous day's selloff, DE should follow the path of least resistance and move lower in the coming days.
Edited by Deron Wagner,
MTG Founder and Head
Trader
DISCLAIMER: There is a risk for substantial losses trading
securities and commodities. This material is for information purposes only and
should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell
any securities. The Company and/or its affiliates, officers, directors and
employees may or may not buy, sell or have a position in the securities
discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet and may profit in the event the shares of the
companies discussed in The MTG Stalk Sheet rise or fall in value. Morpheus
Trading, LLC (hereinafter "The Company") is not a licensed broker,
broker-dealer, market maker, investment banker, investment advisor, analyst or
underwriter. This discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve
risks and uncertainties. A stock's actual results could differ materially from
descriptions given. The companies discussed in this report have not approved any
statements made by The Company. Please consult a broker or financial planner
before purchasing or selling any securities discussed in The MTG Stalk
Sheet. The Company has not been compensated by any of the companies listed
herein, or by their affiliates, agents, officers or employees for the
preparation and distribution of any materials in The MTG Stalk Sheet. Past
performance never guarantees future results.
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