Our ETF and stock trading strategy has a proven history of trading profits. The results speak for themselves.
Unlike most stock and ETF trading newsletters and services, we have been proudly tracking and publishing the results of every stock & ETF swing trade in our nightly Wagner Daily newsletter since the company's inception in 2002. Many competing stock picking services hype and promote only their winning stock picks, while conveniently forgetting about their losing trades. However, we feel this is neither ethical nor transparent. As such, we lay out our complete historical trade performance of the past 10 years for your review.
The graph below compares the hypothetical growth of a simulated $50,000 account since inception of The Wagner Daily swing trader newsletter in 2002. It is calculated based on quarterly compounding, using the exact historical swing trade performance data detailed below the graph (please note disclaimer at bottom of page).
Preservation of capital in bear markets
Note on the graph above that we stayed out of trouble during the big stock market collapse from 2007 to 2009. Our rule-based market timing system, which is designed to keep us out of harm's way during violent bear markets, and even profit through inverse ETFs and/or short selling, is one of the key reasons traders maintain their subscription to our swing trading service over the long-term.
The reality is that profiting from ETF and stock trading in a raging bull market is not that difficult because a vast majority of stocks will trend higher, but what separates amateurs from the professionals is the ability to hold on to those profits when the stock market inevitably changes direction, which usually occurs quite swiftly. Overall, the combination of our proven trading strategy and market timing system is designed to help subscribers generate consistent trading profits in flat to uptrending (bull) markets, while protecting capital in downtrending (bear) markets. Even if you excluded the detailed ETF and stock picks provided in our nightly trading newsletter, many subscribers feel their Wagner Daily subscription pays for itself many times over, just for access to our proprietary market timing model alone.
How performance is calculated:
In addition to providing specific entry and exit points for all ETF and stock picks, we also provide exact share sizing based on a model trading account. This provides our members with an actual portfolio management service that can be replicated, rather than just "stock picks". Here is how it works...
Explanation of our model trading account
The number of shares listed for each trade is based on a model account value of $50,000 ($100,000 total buying power with standard brokerage margin). This is a fixed model account value that stays the same from day to day (does not increase based on cumulative gains). Based on the model account value of $50,000 cash, we predetermine and provide the exact position size of each stock and ETF trade by assuming a maximum capital risk of approximately 1% per trade ($500). If, for example, we enter a new trade that requires a 2-point stop loss, the maximum position size would be limited to 250 shares ($500 max risk / 2 points = 250 shares). Depending on market conditions, we sometimes risk less than 1% ($500) per trade.
Position size for each trade is always reported to members ahead of time so that they may easily determine their own position size, based on the actual size of their individual trading accounts. For example, a member with a $25,000 account should theoretically be able to mirror the percentage of our returns simply by sizing all his trades at 50% of our listed share size for each trade. Conversely, a member with a cash account value of $100,000 could simply double our share size for every trade.
We are conservative in our actual trading with real money. First, we risk only 1% of account value for each trade. Depending on one's own risk tolerance, a member could simply risk 2% of account value per trade and still be within generally accepted rules of risk management. Furthermore, we typically use only about 25% of the account's total marginable buying power of $100,000 (on average). As such, a member would usually be able to double, triple, or even quadruple our share size in order to proportionately increase their returns, relative to our actual reported performance results. Of course, risk works both ways, so a member taking larger share size must be willing and able to handle larger profit/loss swings in both directions.
Above all, we firmly believe in maintaining the same maximum capital risk for each and every trade, regardless of how good any individual trade setup may appear. Traders who "swing for the fences" on any one particular trade can not be successful in the long-term. Rather, consistently profitable traders are successful because they continually work a small mathematical edge on a large number of trades. Realizing a gain of several percent each month is much better than making 25% one month, but losing 25% (or more) the following month. This conservative approach is the reason we have been consistently profitable and have outperformed the main stock market indexes by a wide margin since 2002.
In order to accurately simulate a real trading account, brokerage commission fees are automatically factored in to all trade results. While commission fees vary greatly from one broker to another, our trade stats assume a commission fee of 1 cent per share. This is in line with commission fees at many firms who specialize in servicing active traders. If you are an active trader and still paying "per trade" fees, you should consider switching to a brokerage firm who charges "per share" commission fees because your savings can be substantial, especially with smaller accounts. These firms also provide you with a more extensive inventory of stocks available for short selling. Feel free to e-mail us for specific suggestions.
All trades that resulted in a net gain or loss of less than $100 (including commission fees) are not included in our performance results because each of those trades are considered to be a "scratch." By excluding both winning and losing trades of such a small amount, one can more easily make an accurate analysis of key statistics such as win/loss ratios, avg. gain/avg. loss ratios, etc.
Because we sometimes scale in or out of a trade at various price levels, average entry and exit prices are automatically reported, rather than each individual buy & sell price for partial shares of the same trade. Italicized text on the trade detail pages indicates an average price was used. Similarly, an individual trade date in italics indicates that MTG scaled in or out of the trade over the course of several days.
These hypothetical results do not represent actual trading. Although the performance results and share sizes displayed on this page are from the actual entry and exit prices listed in our trading newsletter, all performance data on this page, and throughout our web site, is hypothetical and for educational purposes only. In reporting the performance data above, realistic execution prices for entry and exit are used, but trades may or may not have actually been executed in a real account. Therefore, even if following our system completely, an individual's actual results may vary due to market factors including lack of liquidity, slippage, and commissions. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those reported. On the graph above, dividends from the S&P 500 Index are not factored into the results. At any given time, Morpheus Trading Group may or may not have actual positions in the ETF and stock trade ideas presented to subscribers. The goal of our service is for a trader to learn how to properly follow a disciplined trading system and to manage risk in their own accounts.