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In continuous daily publication since 2002, The Wagner Daily is an end-of-day stock trading newsletter based on a proven momentum-trading strategy of a short to intermediate-term timeframe.

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The Wagner Daily - March 3, 2017
Proven swing trading strategy, top stock picks, and market timing model...since 2002


market timing model: BUY

Current signal generated on close of November 9, 2016

NOTE: The market timing model is not designed to catch tops and bottoms in the stock market. Rather, it ensures our trades are lin line with the prevailing market trend.


today's watchlist (potential trade entries):

$todays watchlist
Having trouble seeing the open positions graphic above? Click here to view directly on your web browser.

open positions:

Below is an overview of all open positions, as well as a report on all positions that were closed only since the previous day's newsletter. Changes to open positions since the previous report are listed in pink shaded cells below. Be sure to read the Wagner Daily subscriber guide for important, automatic rules on trade entries and exits.

$todays watchlist
Having trouble seeing the open positions graphic above? Click here to view directly on your web browser.

closed positions:

open position summary
Having trouble seeing the closed positions graphic above? Click here to view it directly on your web browser instead.

position notes:
  • No new trades were made.

Commentary:

The market remains in trend mode, but a break of last week's low on the weekly chart of $SPY and $QQQ could lead to a test of the rising 20-day exponential moving average on the daily chart.

It is easy to get caught up in overanalyzing the charts of major indices with the hope of calling a top in a rally.  During a bull market, distribution days are often a sign of money rotating out of extended names and into new stocks that are ready to launch higher. 

However, for those who are focused on calling a top, that distribution day may confirm an already negative belief that the market needs a break.  Rather than focusing on what the market is doing form day to day, we believe time could be better spent by scanning through charts to detect new leadership.  

Over the past few weeks, we have seen money flow out of extended semiconductor names and into biotechs, medical, financials, and building materials.

We have a few new setups added to Monday's watchlist.  $SQ has pulled back into the rising 10-day MA last Friday, forming a doji like candle after gapping lower.  The candle signals the potential for a reversal after a few days in a row of lower closes.  We are placing a buy stop entry above Friday's high, with a stop below the rising 20-day EMA, but we'd prefer the price action hold the 10-day MA.

$SQ DAILY

The second setup is an add to an existing position in $CBPX on a potential breakout from a bull-flag like pattern on the daily chart.  The pole of the flag began on the move off the 50-day MA, with the flag portion forming over the past two sesions.  We are adding another 2.5% to our 5% position to bring the risk up to about $260, which is about 1/2 of 1% (our usual risk per trade).

For those who wish to take on bigger position sizing it is certainly possible, but please know your risk profile.  If you have yet to create a risk profile, then we suggest you do so right away.  Figure out how much you are willing to lose in your account should you suffer 10 losses in a row.  If risking 1% of account value per trade, that would put the account down at least 10%.  There is no right or wrong answer here, just figure out a number you are comfortable with.

$CBPX DAILY

$BLDR is a stock from $CBPX's group with a big volume breakaway gap up last week.  The price may need to settle down for another day or two, but the gap up is a strong buy signal.  For many traders, gaps are intimidating and tough to buy, as it looks like one is buying into a very overbought chart.  However,  the low of the gap up day will often become the low of a multi-month rally that runs 50 to 100% or more before stalling.  Learn to love gaps!

$BLDR DAILY

$AAOI is a beast! For those itching to lock in some of that 77% gain in the stock, take 1/4 to 1/3 of your shares off the table and continue to hold the rest. There simply is no reason to sell the full position at this time.

Stocks to watch this week: $CCS $EVBG $TRU $CARB $HOME $ANET $CTRL $TWOU $ACM $PEN $DK $VEEV $OLLI  $FOXF $WAGE $HUBS

These are just a few stocks off our internal watchlist which will be available for download in the members area of the site by 8:30 am Monday morning.


self-serve watchlist:

This is an unofficial watchlist of potential setups for today's session (trade results will not be monitored). This list is for experienced traders only who are looking for a few ideas. No targets or stops will be listed. Please check for earnings before entering.

$self serve


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